7-day flood forecast

by Liza on Mar. 21st, 2011

The National Weather Service has updated the 7-day outlook for the Mississippi River at downtown St. Paul. So far, the news is good: we're looking at 18.3' by the end of the week -- equivalent to last year's flood event, and a hassle, surely, but nowhere near the record. However,

"SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL MELT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND HOW MUCH RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL...AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
COMBINED TOTAL WATER WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE RIVER SYSTEMS...BEFORE
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

THE CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS ONLY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT 24 HOURS OF FORECAST
PRECIPITATION...HENCE THROUGH 7 AM ON MONDAY. SO THESE FORECAST DO NOT
INCLUDE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS."

So stay tuned. The 7-day outlook gets updated as needed.

Plot showing 7-day forecast issued at 8:45 pm, 3/20: 18.3' is WAY lower than 26.4'. But this forecast doesn't take into account the rain/snow we're going to get this week. A heavy rain could take us back into record territory.
Plot showing 7-day forecast issued at 8:45 pm, 3/20: 18.3' is WAY lower than 26.4'. But this forecast doesn't take into account the rain/snow we're going to get this week. A heavy rain could take us back into record territory.Courtesy Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Your Comments, Thoughts, Questions, Ideas

Liza's picture
Liza says:

In effort to address potential flooding concerns, the city of Saint Paul has initiated a Shepard Road closure, effective today (9:00 a.m., Monday, March 21, 2011).

Shepard Road will be closed, from Eagle Street, to Highway 61, for work on a levee, between Sibley Street, and Jackson Street. The closure will remain in effect until the waters crest and recede.

The Mississippi River, in Saint Paul, is expected to reach flood stage (14 feet), on Thursday, March 24, 2011.

By Friday, March 25, 2011, the Mississippi River, in Saint Paul, is expected to surpass, at 15.1 feet, the moderate flooding stage.

The city of Saint Paul is encouraging drivers to use alternate entrances to downtown (such as Interstates 94 and 35E).

River levels and other flood-related information are posted at www.stpaul.gov/floodprep.

posted on Mon, 03/21/2011 - 12:29pm

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