Apr
03
2007

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

Two hurricanes: This satellite image, captured 8/30/05, shows Hurricane Iris in the central Atlantic Ocean, with Tropical Storm Karen to the southeast. (The original image, from which this is cropped, also showed Hurricane Humberto moving northeast across the Atlantic.)
Two hurricanes: This satellite image, captured 8/30/05, shows Hurricane Iris in the central Atlantic Ocean, with Tropical Storm Karen to the southeast. (The original image, from which this is cropped, also showed Hurricane Humberto moving northeast across the Atlantic.)

Check back often for the latest predictions, forecasts, and discussion.

Your Comments, Thoughts, Questions, Ideas

Liza's picture
Liza says:

Hurricane expert William Gray of Colorado State University--one of the major hurricane predictors--says his models show a very active 2007 hurricane season.

Gray expects 17 named storms this year, 5 of which will be hurricanes rated at Category 3 or higher. According to the Associated Press,

"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, [Gray] said."

(Each year, the group from Colorado State University and a group from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) independently generate hurricane predictions. Last year, both Gray's and the government's forecasts overestimated the number and ferocity of the year's hurricanes.)

So what's "normal"?

The Colorado State group defines an average season as:

  • 9.6 tropical storms;
  • 5.9 hurricanes;
  • and 2.3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

NOAA defines an average season as:

  • 6-14 named storms;
  • 4-8 hurricanes;
  • and 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

2005 was a record season, with 28 named storms, and 15 hurricanes. 4 of those hit the US coast (including Katrina and Rita). 2006 was a "near-average" season, with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes. 2 of them were major, but none hit the US coast.

Last year, though, El Nino helped calm hurricanes with winds that pulled the storm systems apart. This year, a weak El Nino effect has already dissipated, making the formation of major storms more likely.

posted on Tue, 04/03/2007 - 3:48pm
Liza's picture
Liza says:

Here's a list of the names for Atlantic storms in 2007:

  • Andrea
  • Barry
  • Chantal
  • Dean
  • Erin
  • Felix
  • Gabrielle
  • Humberto
  • Ingrid
  • Jerry
  • Karen
  • Lorenzo
  • Melissa
  • Noel
  • Olga
  • Pablo
  • Rebekah
  • Sebastien
  • Tanya
  • Van
  • Wendy

These names are the same as the ones used in 2001 except for Andrea, Ingrid, and Melissa; those replace Allison, Iris, and Michelle, which have been retired. And this same list, minus any retired names, will be used again for the 2013 hurricane season.

posted on Tue, 04/03/2007 - 3:54pm
Anonymous's picture
Anonymous says:

i am sure glad we dont have hurricanes here in minnesota, they are pretty bad to live through. We have tornadoes here in Minnesota and they can get pretty tough to deal with too.

posted on Tue, 04/03/2007 - 5:50pm
Toni's picture
Toni says:

If you have a hurricane coming in your area and you being evacuated, please pack what you can and your animals and get to a safe place.

posted on Tue, 04/10/2007 - 11:15am
Gene's picture
Gene says:

In 2005, we had more hurricanes than normal. Many people blamed global warming for heating up the ocean, creating more storms, and more powerful storms.

Now come this report from Reuters predicting that 2007 will have fewer hurricanes than normal. The reason? Global warming!

"Global warming could increase a climate phenomenon known as wind shear that inhibits Atlantic hurricanes....

Wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction at different altitudes, tends to tear apart tropical cyclones, preventing nascent ones from growing and already-formed hurricanes from becoming the monster storms that cause the most damage."

A large number of hurricanes? Must be global warming.
A small number of hurricanes? Must be global warming.

Ya' can't lose! ;-)

posted on Wed, 04/18/2007 - 11:42am
Anonymous's picture
Anonymous says:

NO there is sapose to be MORE hurricanes this year, IF you live where there is a hurricane PLEASE leave this year. dont let what happend to katrina where people stayed!

posted on Thu, 05/24/2007 - 12:25am
BIG DOG's picture
BIG DOG says:

LOOKS LIKE ONE NASTY HURRICANE

posted on Fri, 04/20/2007 - 10:53am
nicole's picture
nicole says:

I live in the caribbean and have live through some major hurricane so I hope that this year we will not be hit by a storm

posted on Tue, 05/01/2007 - 6:27am
Janelle's picture
Janelle says:

I live in Miami and over the past couple years seems like more and more people are buying generators.
I don't like Hurricane Season. Why is it though, that hurricanes are happening later and later in the season. How come is it that the later it gets in the season, it seems like there's more probability for landfall here in the U.S.?

posted on Tue, 05/08/2007 - 12:23pm
Bethany's picture
Bethany says:

I don't think the hurricanes this year have been as bad as last year. Last year there were bad ones. Even though we don't get hurricanes here, I can still imagine what it would be like to experience one.

posted on Thu, 05/10/2007 - 1:39pm
Dick Macguyver's picture
Dick Macguyver says:

There should be better organized planning to evacuate disabled individuals and hospital patients, I was apalled to hear that some were left behind by caregivers. I find it absolutely disgraceful that individuals who are fortunate enough to be in good health would run to save themselves rather than helping those who are in need of assistance.
Dick Macguyver

posted on Wed, 05/16/2007 - 2:37pm
Liza's picture
Liza says:

NOAA issued another Atlantic hurricane season prediction on May 22. The verdict? NOAA's climate models are indicating a 75% chance of an above-normal hurricane season: 13-15 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

The group at Colorado State will issue its next Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 31. Stay tuned...

posted on Thu, 05/24/2007 - 12:18pm
Liza's picture
Liza says:

The Colorado State forecast issued today is unchanged from the April 3 forecast (described earlier in this thread): 17 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins tomorrow.

posted on Thu, 05/31/2007 - 10:52am
alisha23's picture
alisha23 says:

2 YRS AGO. WE HAD TO EVACUATE FROM HURRICANE RITA. WHEN RITA HIT. IT WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. IT CAUSED SEVERE DAMAGE. AND NOW. THEIR WAS A TROPICAL STORM ANDREA THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT MAY 9. EVEN BEFORE HURRICANE SEASON. AND BARRY CAME OUT ON 6-2. I TALKED TO MY NEAREST WEATHER IN MY CITY. AND HE TOLD ME THAT WASNT NORMAL. AND THIS HURRICANE SEASON WILL BE VERY ACTIVE. SO THIS YEAR IM PLANNING AN EVACUATION ROUTE IN CASE THEIR IS ANOTHER EVACUATION .

posted on Mon, 06/04/2007 - 11:52pm
alisha23's picture
alisha23 says:

when hurricane rita hit. their was a tragedy involving ederly people. a bus that was driven by a gut who wasnt a legal resident of us that drove the bus which caught on fire. killing elderly people

posted on Tue, 06/05/2007 - 12:02am
MEOW's picture
MEOW says:

WOW...THAT'S SAD.

posted on Wed, 07/04/2007 - 12:24pm
alisha23's picture
alisha23 says:

In a tragic prologue to the ordeal of Hurricane Rita, at least 24 elderly patients from a Houston nursing home died yesterday in a fiery bus accident as they were being evacuated from the path of a storm that has provoked a peacetime exodus unmatched in US history.

The accident happened 17 miles south of Dallas, blocking for hours the main highway leading north from the fast-emptying city of Houston. The bus burst into flames after several oxygen canisters used to treat the patients exploded.

Rescue crews rushed to the scene, but only 14 passengers were pulled out alive. Huge new traffic jams built up, adding to the tribulations of widespread petrol shortages and excruciatingly slow traffic as an estimated 2.7m people left the Houston area and south- eastern Texas as Rita bore down.

posted on Tue, 06/05/2007 - 12:02am
alisha23's picture
alisha23 says:

HOUSTON, Sept. 23 -- By the time the first officers arrived, it was too late.

The initial 911 call had been about a bus emitting flames, but those flames quickly became an inferno that consumed 24 elderly people who were being evacuated from their nursing home as this city prepared for Hurricane Rita.

Emergency crews help at the scene where a bus caught fire and exploded on northbound I-45 in Texas. (AP)

Photos
Rita Churns Toward Texas
Hurricane Rita slapped at Key West on Tuesday before strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. Throughout the Gulf Coast, communities were evacuated and as many as 2 million people were urged to leave Texas and Louisiana.

Graphic
Readying for Landfall
The National Weather Service yesterday predicted that Hurricane Rita could make landfall near the Houston-Galveston area. A study prepared for Harris County (to which Houston belongs) showed that a large part of the urban area will be vulnerable to flooding if a hurricane makes landfall there.

Audio
Post.com's Zamora From Houston
Posted at 9:15 a.m. ET

washingtonpost.com's Amanda Zamora reports from Houston on preparations in Texas as Hurricane Rita approaches the coast.

Video
Bus Filled With Rita Evacuees Goes Up in Flames
A bus filled with elderly Hurricane Rita evacuees from the Houston area caught fire early Friday on gridlocked Interstate 45, leaving an undetermined number of deaths and injuries.

Who's Blogging?
Read what bloggers are saying about this article.
BROKEN WINDOWS
The Malcontent
Liberal Rage (tm)

Full List of Blogs (25 links) »

Most Blogged About Articles
On washingtonpost.com | On the web

Trapped by their infirmities and surrounded by flames, the residents of a facility called Brighton Gardens cried out for help in their broken down bus on Interstate 45 near Dallas, but rescuers could not reach them. Three Dallas County deputy sheriffs and a local police officer could not get past the second-level step of the bus when they arrived at 6:09 a.m.

"One deputy felt the blast furnace of flames and smelled the black acrid smoke, and he could hear them. He shined his flashlight in and said, 'Please come forward to the light. I can't get to you,' " said Dallas County Sheriff's Department spokesman Don Peritz. "Then there was a number of small explosions, and he was forced to come back off the bus."

Authorities said they believe the explosions came when some of the residents' oxygen tanks ignited.

The Brighton Gardens residents were the first of Rita's victims, dying a full 24 hours before the hurricane was to make landfall. They were among 39 residents on the bus; the 15 others were taken to Dallas hospitals. The bus driver and six nursing home employees aboard survived.

Brighton Gardens is a 140-bed assisted living and skilled nursing facility in Bellaire, a Houston suburb. It is owned by Sunrise Senior Living Inc. of McLean.

"Sunrise has been devastated by this tragedy," said Paul J. Klaassen, company chairman and chief executive officer. "Our hearts go out to the families and friends of the residents involved in this unfortunate incident. Our primary concern is for the safety of our residents, and we are shocked and saddened that this event occurred during our evacuation."

Brighton Gardens administrators began the evacuation Thursday.

Families picked up most of the residents, but two busloads of residents and staff members were dispatched to sister facilities in Dallas. One bus arrived safely early Friday. The second bus, which left Thursday night, broke down on I-45, about 20 miles south of Dallas. The driver managed to pull the vehicle onto the shoulder of the northbound lanes, to free up a lane surrounded by a sea of vehicles carrying evacuees out of Houston for as far as the eye could see.

Callers to 911 reported seeing flames coming out of the rear of the bus.

"There was heavy smoke and a lot of confusion and very elderly persons laying on the roadway -- eighties, mid-eighties, nineties," Peritz said
By the time the flames were extinguished, the bus was a charred shell, the victims virtually destroyed.

"The majority of the bus melted. . . . In my 25 years here, I have never seen anything like this -- of this magnitude of victims -- short of an aircraft accident," Peritz said.

Emergency crews help at the scene where a bus caught fire and exploded on northbound I-45 in Texas. (AP)

Photos
Rita Churns Toward Texas
Hurricane Rita slapped at Key West on Tuesday before strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. Throughout the Gulf Coast, communities were evacuated and as many as 2 million people were urged to leave Texas and Louisiana.

Graphic
Readying for Landfall
The National Weather Service yesterday predicted that Hurricane Rita could make landfall near the Houston-Galveston area. A study prepared for Harris County (to which Houston belongs) showed that a large part of the urban area will be vulnerable to flooding if a hurricane makes landfall there.

Audio
Post.com's Zamora From Houston
Posted at 9:15 a.m. ET

washingtonpost.com's Amanda Zamora reports from Houston on preparations in Texas as Hurricane Rita approaches the coast.

Video
Bus Filled With Rita Evacuees Goes Up in Flames
A bus filled with elderly Hurricane Rita evacuees from the Houston area caught fire early Friday on gridlocked Interstate 45, leaving an undetermined number of deaths and injuries.

Who's Blogging?
Read what bloggers are saying about this article.
BROKEN WINDOWS
The Malcontent
Liberal Rage (tm)

Full List of Blogs (25 links) »

Most Blogged About Articles
On washingtonpost.com | On the web

The National Transportation Safety Board, along with the Texas Department of Public Safety and Dallas County sheriff's office, is investigating. What sparked the initial fire is still unknown. The bus driver, employed by the charter bus company, Global Limo Inc., of Pharr, Tex., was being questioned by authorities. Officials were trying to determine who was on the bus that burned, because investigators had received only one manifest of residents' and staff members' names for the two buses that left Brighton Gardens.

Because of the intensive fire, the Dallas County medical examiner's office said some remains may have to be identified by matching DNA samples.

While authorities usually investigate the wreckage of such crashes at the scene, they moved the charred bus to a warehouse to free up the evacuation route.

Some of the Brighton Gardens residents were being evacuated -- and fleeing a hurricane -- for the second time in less than a month, said Sunrise spokesman Jamison Gosselin. But he said he did not know if any of the residents who had been evacuated from New Orleans in advance of Hurricane Katrina were on the chartered bus that caught fire Friday.

"We feel at this point that we did the best we could, and this was just a devastating and unfortunate tragedy that we never thought would have happened," Gosselin said.

posted on Tue, 06/05/2007 - 12:05am
Dr. John Rhodes Phd.'s picture
Dr. John Rhodes Phd. says:

As a volunteer, I learned first hand of the destruction that Hurricanes bring to the United States during Katrina and Rita working with the Humane Society. I find that accurate predictions can save many lives & property.This is why we need research.

posted on Wed, 06/27/2007 - 8:05am
Gene's picture
Gene says:

The 2007 hurricane season is off to a slow start. While fewer hurricanes is always good news, experts caution us not to let our guard down -- we still have a lot of hurricane season left to go.

posted on Thu, 06/28/2007 - 10:56am
Gene's picture
Gene says:

A private forecaster has lowered his predictions for the 2007 season to 14 named storms, six hurricanes, and only three major hurricanes. If this holds true (and that's a big "if"), then it looks more and more like the above-normal 2005 season was just an anomaly.

posted on Wed, 07/25/2007 - 7:53am
Jeff Boyd's picture
Jeff Boyd says:

I cannot believe how accurate these "doomsday global warming believing" bafoons are. There are so many storms and it so much worse than ever and it is just getting worse...oh wait...we have seen no hurricanes, we had a sub-tropical storm, a tropical storm that brought much needed rain here to us in the Tampa FLorida area and another that did little worth talking about.

Quit the doomsday, global warming crap. The Earth has cycles. Soon we will be warned of global cooling again and it will all be man's fault. Shut up and enjoy the Sunshine.

Jeff in Florida

posted on Wed, 08/08/2007 - 2:24pm
bryan kennedy's picture

Despite your abusive tone I posted your comment because it provides and interesting lead in to an article I read this morning.

Steven D. Levitt of the NYTimes freakonmics blog wrote about the link between hurricanes and global warming or lack thereof. Essentially he points out that the media and a few scientists are the main force behind the "global warming = big hurricanes" theories. The majority of climate scientists don't think that there is enough evidence to support that link up just yet. However, don't throw the baby out with the bath water. Just one over exaggerated claim about hurricanes sure doesn't disprove the common scientific thinking about global warming:
1 - It's happening.
2 - The current trend in warming is mainly causes by human activity.

posted on Wed, 08/08/2007 - 2:37pm
Gene's picture
Gene says:

If there is one area of human endeavor where consensus or "common thinking" holds the least sway, it is science. It doesn't matter what scientists say; it matters what the evidence say. And the evidence is pretty clear that climate is an incredibly complicated system, affected by many things, most of which are well beyond our control.

posted on Thu, 08/09/2007 - 9:40am
Geoff's picture
Geoff says:

Something to remember also -
Even if the current global warming trend isn't caused by humans (which seems doubtful), it is a warming trend nonetheless. Whether the causes are natural or human, if global temperatures continue to increase at their present rate, we'll be just as screwed either way.
Warming and cooling trends rarely occur on a time frame of less than hundreds or thousands of years, so while "Soon we will be warned of global cooling again and it will all be man's fault," Jeff in Florida will never have to worry about being warned of a cooling trend - he'll be long dead.

The other thing about global warming (or cooling, I suppose) is that it isn't so simle as everything getting warmer or cooler. We don't know exactly how the weather will change, or where. So places that were once nice for people to live (like Tampa, although that's debatable) or farm, may not be for long as weather patterns change. Maybe these places will start needing rain, for instance.

posted on Wed, 08/08/2007 - 3:48pm
Gene's picture
Gene says:

I was warned of global cooling in the 1970s. I suppose that makes me "long dead." Well, judging from my record collection (and the fact that I refer to it as a "record collection"), one could be forgiven for making that assumption. ;-)

posted on Thu, 08/09/2007 - 9:41am
belljnz's picture
belljnz says:

Just wanted to update everyone since the last comment was made on 08/09/07. There is Tropical Storm Erin in the Gulf, it will hit Corpus tonight & will keep moving upwards. Also, there is another tropical storm..Dean. Dean will be turning into a hurricane tonight & by the time it hits the islands it will be a cat 3. Some predictions are that it is heading towards Texas & it's path is similar to Ritas. Me living in Southeast Texas & made it through Rita, I have my hopes up that it (Dean) dies off, if not I'm sure all will be ok. Just wanted to give everyone an heads up on what has been going on down here in the south. Take Care!

posted on Wed, 08/15/2007 - 4:25pm
Esteban's picture
Esteban says:

As a Puerto Rico resident we have to stay ready for action.
2007 season looks bad for us.

posted on Sun, 09/02/2007 - 2:11pm
Anonymous's picture
Anonymous says:

My gosh, how many hurricanes are we going to have? There was Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charlie,etc. We're going to have a biiiiiiig Category 5 hurricane soon. Watch out!

posted on Sun, 10/21/2007 - 3:15pm
Gene's picture
Gene says:

With about six weeks to go in the hurricane season, we've had 13 named storms, only 4 hurricanes, 2 of which were major. Predictions for the number of named storms appear to be right on target, while the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes has been lower than expected.

Hurricanes are a natural phenomenon that occur every year. No one can say how many hurricanes we're going to have. All we know is that there will be hurricanes, every year, for as long as there is an Atlantic Ocean.

Yes, we are going to have another category 5 hurricane, sometime in the next 10 or 20 years. We are also going to have a big blizzard, and a tornado, and every other weather phenomenon. No one can say when. All we can do is be prepared.

posted on Mon, 10/22/2007 - 8:27am
tgmck's picture
tgmck says:

Several of these named storms barely maintained storm status for 2-3 days, hardly vindication for the number of named storms. Last January, it was reported that cooler than normal water temps were to blame for the 2006 forecast faux pas, and again in May the slow start to the season was blamed on the cooler than normal ocean temps. If a weak El Nino causing wind shear is Global Warming then why did "they" say GW would cause more hurricanes?

None of this makes any sense, unless, politically correct science is driving the forecasts.

posted on Tue, 10/23/2007 - 6:24pm
Gene's picture
Gene says:

See my comment above from 4/18. ;-)

posted on Thu, 10/25/2007 - 11:55am
Gene's picture
Gene says:

According to a report from Florida State University, 2007 has been the quietest hurricane season in 30 years. However, the authors caution that there are still 9 weeks to go before the season officially closes.

posted on Tue, 10/30/2007 - 8:31am
Anonymous's picture
Anonymous says:

Wow

posted on Tue, 11/06/2007 - 11:55am
Heidi Says's picture
Heidi Says says:

WOW!THAT IS REALLY SAD AND BADDDDDDDD.

posted on Fri, 12/14/2007 - 11:19am
Anonymous's picture
Anonymous says:

THIS THING WAS REALLY COOL BUT IT DIDN'T TELL ABOUT HOW HURRICANES FORM THAT'S WHAT I WONDER!!!!!

posted on Wed, 04/23/2008 - 11:34am
Liza's picture
Liza says:

There's a ton of information on Science Buzz about how hurricanes form. Start here.

posted on Wed, 04/23/2008 - 11:55am
Anonymous's picture
Anonymous says:

i felt really bad for the people that were in the hurricane

posted on Sat, 06/21/2008 - 3:22pm
Brooke's picture
Brooke says:

Hurricanes aren't THAT scary me and one of my friends went through a hurricane, and we didn't even know it was a hurricane until a day later

posted on Fri, 08/01/2008 - 10:28am

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <h3> <h4> <em> <i> <strong> <b> <span> <ul> <ol> <li> <blockquote> <object> <embed> <param> <sub> <sup>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • You may embed videos from the following providers vimeo, youtube. Just add the video URL to your textarea in the place where you would like the video to appear, i.e. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pw0jmvdh.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Images can be added to this post.

More information about formatting options